FOREIGN POLICY FANTASY INSANITY

On January 25, I posted, Whither Iran? in which I wrote, “Who thinks the Bush Administration is planning to attack Iran? For starters, there’s Scott Ritter and Seymour Hersh.”

Joining this well-respected and informed duo is my friend, Jim Stoops,* (photo) who has written the post below. Thank you, Jim, for doing such a thorough job.

Why the Bush Administration will invade Iran, or déjà vu all over again


Motivations
1. Iran has lots of oil
2. Iran is located in easy missile striking distance of Israel
3. Iran is a Muslim nation
4. The neocon Bushites fear nations with nuclear capability
5. It’s what the neocon Bushites want and no one will stop them
6. Imperial powers are not beholden to morality, ethics or laws

The evidence of increased U.S. hostilities toward Iran
1. Two aircraft carrier groups, each accompanied by destroyers, cruisers, submarines, cruise missile ships, and 80 combat aircraft capable of more than 150 strikes a day.
2. Recent U.S. acquisition of anti-missile bases in the Czech Republic and Poland and the activation of three new Air Force bases in Bulgaria and Romania.
3. The replacement of Army general Abizaid with Navy Admiral Fallon as head of Central Command. An attack on Iran requires naval operations.
4. A package of onerous sanctions on Iran, pushed by the Bush Administration and endorsed by the UN Security Council.
5. A January 10 speech by Bush threatening Iran and Syria, accusing them of supporting the Iraqi insurgency, essentially blaming the Iran government for his lack of success in Iraq.
6. Bush and Defense Dept spokesmen Snow and Whitman both deny that the US is thinking of a military attack and that the administration is committed to a diplomacy, in spite of Bush's consistent refusal to talk with Iran.
7. The Kuwaiti-based Arab Times daily reported a US military strike on Iran before the end of April that would target oil installations and nuclear facilities from US ships. The report was circulated News and China Daily.
8. The Guardian (UK) reports Pentagon plans to strike more than 10,000 targets in of a war that Central Command has been planning for over a year.
9. The positioning of new US refueling sites for Stealth Bombers was reported by Bulgaria news.
10. In March 3,000 military personnel will arrive at US bases in Bulgaria. Up to 2,000 troops will be stationed in Romania.
11. Chalmers Johnson's "The Sorrows of Empire" says Iran is the only serious block to US military domination of the whole region.
12. On January 14, 2007 Bush National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley refused to rule out the possibility of an attack on Iran.
13. Seymour Hersh revealed in The New Yorker last year that American bombers have been flying simulated nuclear weapons delivery missions since last summer.
14. In 2004 the Nuclear Security Presidential Directive 35 authorized the deployment of "tactical" nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
15. The Arab Times of Kuwait reports that General Leonid Ivashov, former Joint Chief of Staff of the Russian Army and a leading military strategist, says the US will use nuclear munitions delivered by cruise missiles launched from the Mediterranean. He said also that the Iraq war was just one element in a series of steps toward regional destabilization.
16. The World Economic Forum on January 24, 2007 opened with a discussion of Bush's planned attack on Iran. The Secretary General of the League of Arab States plus bankers and businessmen from US allies such as Bahrain and United Arab Emirates all warned of the coming attack and its catastrophic consequences for the Middle East and the world.
17. Two additional Carrier Task Force Groups are scheduled to arrive in the Persian Gulf
in April, ostensibly to "replace" the USS Eisenhower and USS Stennis that arrived in January. This will mean the presence of four carrier groups, each with the capacity, listed in evidence #1, i.e., over 320 planes capable of 600 strikes per day. This represents a massive and unprecedented amount of naval firepower assembled in one location.
18. This air assault has been in the planning since before November, 2003 when US Strategic Command near Omaha completed its preparations for waging preemptivestrikes against Iran and North Korea. This was reported in the Washington Post May 15, 2005 under the name CONPLAN 8022 to be carried out by StratCom.
19. Recently, three US military officials accused the Iranian government of arming Iraqi insurgents with roadside bombs, based on markings on the bombs, including dates of manufacture. General Peter Pace, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said there is noevidence of Iranian government involvement. As it turns out a US dating system was used, not and Iranian one.
20. The Democrats abandoned the Iran War Amendment preventing the use of the $100 billion appropriation for a war on Iran, giving Bush carte blanche.
21. Bush ignored the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group and went with the recommendations of the neocon American Enterprise Institute.
22. When asked about a possible attack on Iran, Nancy Pelosi, Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all said we have to keep all options on the table.
23. When asked about a Senate Resolution to stop the surge of 20,000 troops to Iraq, Dick Cheney said, "It won't stop us"

The evidence of lack of a basis for attacking Iran
1. Iran is strongly opposed to Al Queda, condemned the 911 attacks and supported the US in Afghanistan.
2. The Iran government is not engaged in the cross-border supply of weapons to Iraq that they are accused of. According to the CIA, NY Times, L.A. Times, Senior British Military Officials and General Peter Pace, Chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, nosuch evidence exists.
3. Iran produces no nuclear weapons and has never threatened to build one.
4. The CIA estimates that even with the political will, Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon before 2017 at the earliest.
5. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has never cited Iran for diverting its nuclear program to military use.
6. The IAEA inspectors have had free reign to inspect the nuclear installations at Isfahan and Natanz as recently as January 10 and 12, 2007 and were to return on February 2
and 6.
7. Mohamad El Baradei (Head of IAEA) has said that an attack on Iran will be catastrophic and only encourage them to become a nuclear power.
8. Unlike the US, Iran has attacked no other countries, has a history of obeying International Law, occupies no other territory and has abided by the rules of the NuclearNon-Proliferation Treaty.
9. It should be noted that US presidents have a habit of lying to get us into wars, none more frequently and blatantly than George W. Bush.

Sources
1. The New Yorker, Seymour Hersh, "The Next Act" 11-20-06
2. The Sunday Times UK, S. Baxter & U. Mahnaioni, "Israel Plans Nuclear Strike on Iran" 1-12-07
3. Guardian UK, Dan Plesch, "Next Target Iran" 1-15-07
4. Workers World, Sara Flounders, "Bush Gang Surges Toward War on Iran" 1-18-07
5. Global Network, Gabriel Ronay, "US Poised to Strike Iran's Nuclear Sites From Bulgaria and Romania" 1-30-07
6. Consortium News, Common Dreams, "Iran Clock is Ticking" 1-31-07
7. Ichblog.eu, Paul Craig Roberts, "Bush is About to Attack Iran" 1-27-07
8. Truthout, Steve Hammons, "Will Bush, Cheney Attack Iran?" 2-2-07
9. Global Network, John Pilger, "Iran: A War is Coming" 2-3-07
10. Democracy Now!/Vanity Fair, Craig Unger, "The Neocons Are Pushing For an Attack on Iran" & Harper's, Rick MacArthur, "Iraq Getting Weapons From Iran?"
2-13-07
11. Global Network, The American Conservative, Philip Giraldi and Washington Post, William Arkin, (no titles) 2-16-07
12. Bloomberg.com, Andy Critchlow, "USS Stennis Carrier Group in Gulf Region"
2-20-07
13. Le Figaro, Renaud Girard, "The US Can’t Launch a Military Offensive against Iran Today" 2-23-07
14. Associated Press/ABC News, Chris Brummit, "Pace Questions Iranian Government Giving Arms to Iran" 2-23-07
15. The Telegraph UK, Con Coughlin, "Israel Seeks All Clear For Iran Air Strikes" 2-24-07
16. The Arab Times Kuwait, Editor Ahmed al-Jarallah, 1-14-07 17. The Nation, Editorial, "Saber Rattling Over Iran" 5-22-06

*Jim is a long-time environmental and political activist. He worked in research chemistry for Stauffer Chemical, Chevron's Ortho Division, and Honeywell's Research Center. He has been a member of a intentional community, Emerald Earth Sanctuary, located north of Boonville, California, for 15 years. The community focuses on learning and teaching others how to live sustainably with natural buildings, composting toilets, permaculture techniques, etc. Jim helped with the passage of a countywide ordinance prohibiting the importation or growing of genetically modified foods within Mendocino County.

Jim and I share a common interest in election integrity and we both participate in the California Election Protection Network.