Experts predict more chaos in Middle East if Iran is attacked

Yesterday my post picked up on the opinion circulating in the blogosphere that Cheney is the cheerleader-in-chief for attacking Iran.

So what will happen if Cheney convinces Bush that an attack on Iran is justified?

Coincidentally, I’ve arrived at this question at the same time the Washington Post article, Analysts' Warnings of Iraq Chaos Detailed, described the recently released Senate Panel assessments from 2003.

The lead paragraphs: “Months before the invasion of Iraq, U.S. intelligence agencies predicted that it would be likely to spark violent sectarian divides and provide al-Qaeda with new opportunities in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a report released yesterday by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Analysts warned that war in Iraq also could provoke Iran to assert its regional influence and 'probably would result in a surge of political Islam and increased funding for terrorist groups' in the Muslim world.

"The intelligence assessments, made in January 2003 and widely circulated within the Bush administration before the war, said that establishing democracy in Iraq would be "a long, difficult and probably turbulent challenge." The assessments noted that Iraqi political culture was ‘largely bereft of the social underpinnings’ to support democratic development.”

This morning’s New York Times article, Senate Democrats Say Bush Ignored Spy Agencies' Prewar Warnngs of Iraq Perils, included this comment by Senator John D. Rockefeller IV of West Virginia, “Sadly, the administration’s refusal to heed these dire warnings, and worse, to plan for them, has led to tragic consequences for which our nation is paying a terrible price.”

I don’t have access to a CIA assessment of what could happen if Iran is attacked, but fortunately I know about the reports issued by the Oxford Research Group, which is an independent non-governmental organization promoting a “more sustainable approach to security.” In existence since 1982, in April 2005, it was named one of the top 20 think tanks in the UK by The Independent newspaper.

At its website, these reports are available:
1. Iran: Consequences of Engaging in a War, which states in its summary: “An attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would signal the start of a protracted military confrontation that would probably grow to involve Iraq, Israel and Lebanon, as well as the USA and Iran." The report concludes "that a military response to the current crisis in relations with Iran is a particularly dangerous option and should not be considered further.”

2. Would air strikes work? The full title of this report, released in March of 2007, is “Would Air Strikes Work? Understanding Iran's Nuclear Programme and the Possible Consequences of a Military Strike.” Dr. Hans Blix has written the forward, and its author, Dr. Frank Barnaby, concluded that “that far from stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, military attacks would probably accelerate Iran’s nuclear programme.”

This is my fourth article in four days about the run-up to an attack on Iran. What I’ve come to understand is:

1. The current administration doesn’t listen to experts.
2. Vice-President Cheney is the key person in the administration who is promoting a war on Iran.

Therefore, those of us who don’t want a repeat of the post-attack chaos in Iraq to happen in Iran should be working very, very hard to impeach Cheney. You can join this effort by going to Impeach Cheney Now!

(photo from AfterDowningStreet.org website)