Peter Bergen on the need to fight Al Qaeda in Iraq

I support withdrawal of all of our military forces from Iraq, the sooner the better.

However, I try to remain open to new information, and a couple of days ago I came across Peter Bergen’s Fight Al Qaeda in Iraq, recently posted at his website.

Bergen was part of the CNN team, along with the veteran war correspondent Peter Arnett and the cameraman Peter Jouvenal, that interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.

His bio is impressive. Bergen “…is a Schwartz senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington D.C; an Adjunct Professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; a research fellow at New York University's Center on Law and Security; CNN's terrorism analyst and author of Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Bin Laden.”

In Fight Al Qaeda in Iraq, Bergen unequivocally states, “A persistent Al Qaeda safe haven in Iraq will be a launching pad for attacks against American interests in the region, and even against the United States itself. The National Intelligence Estimate made public in July explains that Al Qaeda ‘will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland.’ In addition, a safe haven would be an ideal location from which to attack “near enemy” American allies such as Saudi Arabia and to disrupt the world’s oil supply, which Osama bin Laden has made a priority according to tapes he has released since 9/11….

“Indeed, America’s top strategic challenge post-drawdown is to position itself in such a way as to prevent the emergence of a long-term Iraqi safe haven for Al Qaeda and affiliated terrorist groups….

“The successful elimination in Anbar province of Al Qaeda forces suggests one approach—persuading, empowering, and bribing tribal leaders to do the work for you. Of course, like a game of whack-a-mole, Al Qaeda fighters have now migrated to other provinces such as Diyala. Applying the Anbar model to fight Al Qaeda in other parts of the country is a promising strategy, particularly since it uses relatively few U.S. troops to leverage larger local forces….

“However, the United States cannot wholly rely on tribes of uncertain loyalties to secure its interests in Iraq, which include not only disrupting Al Qaeda but also securing a number of bases and the enormous embassy that is being built in Baghdad. Other important functions the U.S. military will have to sustain after a withdrawal include training the Iraqi army and any other groups who might help American interests; gathering intelligence; maintaining some kind of reserve combat force; regularly deploying several thousand Special Forces troops for operations against Al Qaeda; and, of course, maintaining the logistical tail to supply all of those functions and soldiers. Given the need to successfully continue those various tasks, some estimate the United States will have to maintain a reinforced division of about 20,000 soldiers combined with logistical delivery teams of a further 10,000 to 15,000 to supply them.” [emphasis mine]

What am I going to do with this information? Before I support maintaining a military presence in Iraq, I’m going to do my homework. I’ll keep you posted.

(photo of Osama bin Laden and Peter Bergen: University of Delaware)

Why is al-Qaeda stronger now than it was in 2001?

The most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), parts of which were recently released, makes it clear that al-Qaeda is stronger and more organized now than it was in September of 2001.

Today the Washington Post reported Intelligence Report Warns of al-Qaeda's Capabilities, and The New York Times headlined its article, Bush Aides See Failure in Fight with Al Qaeda in Pakistan.

Alarming news. But WHY is al-Qaeda stronger and a greater threat to the US after almost six years of Bush’s “global war on terrorism”?

This morning, I listened to Michael Krasny’s (photo) hour-long Forum program on public radio, Intelligence Update, and now I know why al-Qaeda is still a threat. I highly recommend that you either listen to (RealMedia Stream) or download (MP3) the program to listen to later.

The guests were:

Bruce Riedel, former CIA agent and senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East studies at the Brookings Institution.

Fawaz Gerges, Christian A. Johnson chair-holder in International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence College and visiting professor at the American University in Cairo.

Melvin Goodman, former CIA agent and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy

Peter Bergen, Schwartz senior fellow at the New America Foundation, CNN's terrorism analyst and author of "Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of Bin Laden."

(photo of Michael Krasny - from the KQED website)