Showing posts with label Juan Cole. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Juan Cole. Show all posts

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Check out History Shots

This morning when I checked what Juan Cole had to say (I call him “my Middle Eastern expert”), I noticed a pop up ad for HistoryShots.com and saved it.

This evening I ordered "History of the Political Parties II." Click here and you can zoom in on the chart.

This is a growing enterprise, with 16 prints currently available, including Race to the Moon, Genealogy of Pop/Rock Music, and History of Life on Earth.

I think I’ve found the perfect place to find gifts for my family and friends.

(photo of History of Political Parties II chart)

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Iran is back in Bush's gunsight - William R. Polk sees Iran through lenses of danger and opportunity

As I started to gather up the articles I planned to link to in my post about the likelihood of an attack on Iran before Bush is out of office, I came across a Washington Post March 21st article, "Iran a Nuclear Threat, Bush Insists - Experts Say President is Wrong and Is Escalating Tensions." From the article: “Experts on Iran and nuclear proliferation said the president's statement was wrong. 'That's as uninformed as Senator John McCain’s statement that Iran is training al-Qaeda. Iran has never said it wanted a nuclear weapon for any reason. It's just not true. It's a little troubling that the president and the leading Republican candidate are both so wrong about Iran,' said Joseph Cirincione, president of Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation."

I’ve posted numerous times about the likelihood of an attack on Iran. When the National Intelligence Estimate came out last December stating with high confidence that Iran had stopped its nuclear weaponization process in 2003, I thought, “That’s it. Bush can’t possibly attack Iran now.”

Wrong, wrong, wrong. Even Juan Cole, who blogs at Informed Comment, appears to be getting concerned. On March 12th, he posted: “Secretary of Defense Robert Gates denied Tuesday that the abrupt resignation of Admiral William Fallon as CENTCOM commander indicates an imminent war against Iran. I think Gates's denial is credible. There is no sign of an American war on Iran, which would involve key positioning of warships, materiel and troops…. My guess is that the real reason for moving Fallon out is not Iran but Iraq, and that he is being made to step down for the same reason that Donald Rumsfeld was. He does not agree with the long-term troop escalation or 'surge' in Iraq….”

Today, Cole handed over his blog to William R. Polk,* whose guest op ed, "Iran: Danger and Opportunity." Polk starts with the March 12th US News & World Report article, 6 Signs the U.S. May Be Headed for War in Iran." He elaborates on the six signs, including Cheney’s most recent visit to the Middle East, and asks if it’s “…deja vu all over again? U.S. News and World Report notes, ‘Back in March 2002, Cheney made a high-profile Mideast trip to Saudi Arabia and other nations that officials said at the time was about diplomacy toward Iraq and not war…’ It was, as we now know, one of the concerted moves in the build-up to the already-decided-upon plan to attack Iraq.”

Is Juan Cole a little more concerned about an attack on Iran than he was a week ago? I don’t know, but I describe him as “my Middle East expert” and continue to rely on his blog to keep me informed. Regardless of Cole’s opinion, Polk’s guest op-ed is well worth reading.

* William R. Polk was the member of the Policy Planning Council responsible for North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia from 1961 to 1965 and then professor of history at the University of Chicago where he founded the Middle Eastern Studies Center. He was also president of the Adlai Stevenson Institute of International Affairs. His most recent book is Violent Politics: A History of Insurgency, Terrorism & Guerrilla Warfare from the American Revolution to Iraq (New York: HarperCollins, 2007).

(photo of William R. Polk: http://www.williampolk.com/)

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

"5 Years, 5 Lies"

This morning, Juan Cole, who blogs at Informed Comment, had the best summary of the five lies of President Bush and his advisors, one for each year of our war in Iraq.

“Year 1: ‘There is no guerrilla war.’

Year 2: ‘Iraq is a model democracy.’
Year 3: ‘Zarqawi is causing all the trouble.’
Year 4: ‘There is no Civil War.’
Year 5: ‘Everything is calm now.’

”I also suggest that John McCain is pushing for:

Year 6: ‘Total victory is around the corner.’"

Cole links to his Salon.com article describing how "How President Bush and his advisors have spent each year of the war peddling mendacious tales about a mission accomplished."

In the run up to the war, I spent an incredible amount of time reading and watching the debates in Congress about whether or not Iraq represented a threat to this country. I concluded it didn’t. I’m just an ordinary citizen. If I could figure this out, I wonder why our elected representatives couldn’t.

Whether or not an individual opposed the war before it began, there is so much accurate information now available, particularly from people like Juan Cole, who comprehends Arabic, Persian and Urdu, that there’s really no excuse for believed Bush’s lies.

This evening I’m joining others* who oppose the war in Iraq on the plaza in my town, Healdsburg, to publicly protest our continuing occupation of that country.

* The Healdsburg Peace Project has been meeting every Thursday to oppose the Iraq war since October of 2002. They even show up on Thanksgiving!

(photo of the core members of the Healdsburg Peace Project)

Sunday, March 02, 2008

The List: Project to Resettle Iraqi Allies

Have you ever wondered about the more than four million Iraqis displaced by the war started by the U.S.? Where are they? Which countries are taking them in? What about those who have had to flee Iraq because their lives have been threatened for helping the US as translators, interpreters and drivers?

I’ve been aware of the mass misery of these displaced Iraqis, but now I’m going to learn more about these people as individuals, starting with those who have been put in harm’s way by allying themselves with the U.S. I’ve put The List: Project to Resettle Iraqi Allies icon on my desktop. I’ve also signed up for e-mail updates.

There’s a good description of The List in Juan Cole’s March 1 post, "On Mercy and Redress."

George Packer, who writes and blogs for the New Yorker, has been paying attention to the Iraqis whose lives are at risk because they helped the US. His March 26, 2007 article, "Betrayed - The Iraqis who trusted America the most," and his November 16, 2007 post, "One Refugee's Story," are both worth reading.

(logo of the The List from its website)

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Today's must read: Juan Cole on 935 false statements that led a nation to war

Please take time to read "935 False Statements that Led a Nation to War," posted this morning by Juan Cole at his blog, Informed Comment.

Then ask yourself why Congress and even the public don’t think lies that take this nation to war are impeachable offenses. If you do, go to The Democratic Activist and scroll halfway down the page to the action items.

So far, according to AlterNet, we're one step closer to impeaching Cheney because nine out of 23 Democratic members of the House Judiciary Committee favor starting impeachment hearings against Vice President Dick Cheney.

That doesn’t feel close enough to me.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Juan Cole's recommended reading for Thursday

Three recommendations at Juan Cole’s Informed Comment.

Engelhardt’s post is a must-read, and Rubin’s is fascinating for those of us who have been involved in election integrity in this country. I’m also baffled by Pelosi’s position on impeachment.


1. The Justice Department is going to investigate the destruction of videotapes of the interrogation of prisoners in US custody that showed torture. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi keeps asking what Bush has done that is impeachable. Shredding the constitution should count, and if that doesn't then this should.

2. Tom Engelhardt on how Bush took us to the dark side, i.e. how he tempted us into torture.

3. Barnett Rubin on vote rigging in Pakistan. A fascinating dialogue is emerging on some of these issues between him and his colleagues that is a testimony to the interactive character of writing on the Web.

(photo of Cole from his blog)

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Juan Cole: Ten Top Myths about Iraq 2007

Juan Cole never misses a beat, posting right through the holidays. Today’s post: "Ten Top Myths about Iraq 2007."

The myths are listed below. Cole dispels each one.

10. The US public no longer sees Iraq as a central issue in the 2008 presidential campaign.

9. There have been steps toward religious and political reconciliation in Iraq in 2007.

8. The US troop surge stopped the civil war that had been raging between Sunni Arabs and Shiites in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.

7. Iran was supplying explosively formed projectiles (a deadly form of roadside bomb) to Salafi Jihadi (radical Sunni) guerrilla groups in Iraq.

6. The US overthrow of the Baath regime and military occupation of Iraq has helped liberate Iraqi women.

5. Some progress has been made by the Iraqi government in meeting the "benchmarks" worked out with the Bush administration.

4. The Sunni Arab "Awakening Councils," who are on the US payroll, are reconciling with the Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki even as they take on al-Qaeda remnants.

3. The Iraqi north is relatively quiet and a site of economic growth.

2. Iraq has been "calm" in fall of 2007 and the Iraqi public, despite some grumbling, is not eager for the US to depart.

1. The reduction in violence in Iraq is mostly because of the escalation in the number of US troops, or "surge."

(photo of Juan Cole: University of Detroit Mercy)

Thursday, October 25, 2007

"On the Eve of Destruction"

On the “eve of destruction,” I recommend you watch “Video Postcards from Iran”:
Then look at these photos, which I found linked at Juan Cole’s blog, Informed Comment.

Recommended: Have your sound on for both the video postcards and the photos.

Next, I recommend that you read Scott Ritter’s "On the Eve of Destruction," posted at Truthdig on October 22nd.

Read about the “Hadley Rules,” promulgated by National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley: “Hadley is a long-established neoconservative thinker who has for the most part operated ‘in the shadows’ when it comes to the formulation of Iran policy in the Bush administration. In 2001, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States, Hadley (then the deputy national security adviser) instituted what has been referred to as the “Hadley Rules,” a corollary of which is that no move will be made which alters the ideological positioning of Iran as a mortal enemy of the United States. These ‘rules’ shut down every effort undertaken by Iran to seek a moderation of relations between it and the United States, and prohibited American policymakers from responding favorably to Iranian offers to assist with the fight against al-Qaida; they also blocked the grand offer of May 2003 in which Iran outlined a dramatic diplomatic initiative, including a normalization of relations with Israel. The Hadley Rules are at play today, in an even more nefarious manner, with the National Security Council becoming involved in the muzzling of former Bush administration officials who are speaking out on the issue of Iran….” [emphasis mine]

Ritter goes on to describe Hadley as the …[B]ureaucratic ‘grease’ to ease policy formulated elsewhere down the gullet of a national security infrastructure…” and concludes that …”[P]olicy formulation is more and more concentrated in the person of Vice President Cheney…”

Moving on to the president, Ritter discussed Bush’s relationship with God: “The president himself has stated that “God speaks through me” (he acknowledged this before a group of Amish in Pennsylvania in the summer of 2004)….According to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, President Bush told him and others that ‘God told me to strike at al-Qaida and I struck them, and then he instructed me to strike at Saddam, which I did.'” I wonder what message God is whispering in Bush's ear about Iran.

You may want to go back and look at the video postcards and photos of Iran because these scenes may not be around much longer.

(Video post cards from Elegant Bay – photos from Lucas Gray)

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

A nose for the news - The Iran war roll-out: one cartoon and four articles

The October 23rd Tom Toles cartoon says it all, but the following articles fill in the details.

1. On October 23rd Amy Goodman interviews Middle East Analyst & Historian Juan Cole on U.S. War Plans Against Iran.

2. On October 22nd, Washington Post blogger Dan Froomkin posts "Cheney Beats the Drums of War."

3. On October 22nd, Scott Horton posts "The Roll-Out Presses On."

4. On October 22nd, Barnett Rubin at the group blog, Informed Comment Global Affairs posts "The War Rollout Keeps Rolling Along."

(Photo from my friend, Pat Denino, who blogs at Wandering Wonderings)

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Is a country that hasn't launched a war in 222 years likely to start World War III?

“President Bush Bush issued a stark warning on Iran on Wednesday, suggesting that if the country obtained nuclear arms, it could lead to ‘World War III’,” as reported by The New York Times this morning.

“We got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel,” Mr. Bush said at a White House news conference, referring to a remark by the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that Israel “will disappear soon.” Mr. Bush said he had “told people that if you’re interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.” [emphasis mine]

Is it obtaining nuclear arms or having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon that's going to trigger World War III?

Is Iran a threat? According to Juan Cole, who posted The Iran Hawks on October 17th, “Iran has not launched an aggressive war against a neighbor since 1785 and does not have a history of military expansionism. Its population is a third that of the United States and its military is small and weak. Aside from the Republican Party's long history of fear-mongering as a way to get power, throw public money to their corporate clients, and scare Americans into giving up their civil liberties, what is driving this obsession with Tehran?”

Cole adds, "...His [President Ahmadinejad] expressed wish that the 'occupation regime over Jerusalem' (i.e., the Israeli government) eventually vanish has been mistranslated.”

Juan Cole speaks and reads Persian, so I suspect he’s right.

(photo of President Bush by Stephen Crowley for The New York Times)

Friday, October 05, 2007

Why is Ann Coulter allowed to speak at an American university and Bishop Desmond Tutu isn't?

This morning when I read Juan Cole’s post, Tutu Excluded - Double Standard at the University of St. Thomas, I was so upset that I called the university, 651.962.4000, and left a message.

According to Cole, Tutu was uninvited from speaking at the Catholic University of St. Thomas [UST] in Minneapolis for his stance against Israeli mistreatment of the Palestinians. Tutu “[H]as stood all his life for nonviolent peace-making and an end to racism....


“And here is the kicker. UST is guilty of a whopper of a double standard. Two years ago, the university allowed Ann Coulter to speak on its campus.

"Ann Coulter once said of Muslims, 'We should invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity.'"

Tony Karon posted My favorite ‘anti-Semite’ about UST’s refusal to let Tutu speak on its campus: “…Having asked sane and rational people to believe that Jimmy Carter is a Holocaust denier simply for pointing out the obvious about the apartheid regime Israel maintains in the occupied territories, the same crew now want us to believe that Archbishop Desmond Tutu is an anti-Semite. No jokes!

“That was the reason cited for Tutu being banned from speaking at St. Thomas University in Minneapolis. ‘We had heard some things he said that some people judged to be anti-Semitic and against Israeli policy,’ explained university official Doug Hennes.

“’The anti-Semitic’ views Tutu had expressed were in his April 2002 speech “Occupation is Oppression” in which he likened the occupation regime in the West Bank, based on his personal experience of it, to what he had experienced as a black person in South Africa….”

This afternoon I called UST at 651.962.6500, the office of the President of UST, Father Dease, where I left a message. I then Googled Father Dease and found this letter to members of the St. Thomas community regarding the Tutu uninvitation:

“…We became aware of concerns about some of Archbishop Tutu's widely publicized statements that have been hurtful to members of the Jewish community. I spoke with Jews for whom I have great respect. What stung these individuals was not that Archbishop Tutu criticized Israel but how he did so, and the moral equivalencies that they felt he drew between Israel’s policies and those of Nazi Germany, and between Zionism and racism.”

I read Tutu’s April 2002 speech “Occupation is Oppression” and found this reference to Hitler: “People are scared in this country [the U.S.] to say wrong is wrong because the Jewish lobby is powerful – very powerful. Well, so what? This is God’s world. For goodness sake, this is God’s world! We live in a moral universe. The apartheid government was very powerful, but today it no longer exists. Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Pinochet, Milosovic, and Idi Amin were all powerful, but in the end they bit the dust.” [emphasis mine]

Even though Father Dease’s letter was directed to the St. Thomas community and he ends the letter by welcoming their comments, I hope more people call him, 652.962.6500 (his office) or 651.962.4000 (the main number). According to the university’s website, its mission is to educate “…[S]tudents to be morally responsible leaders who think critically, act wisely and work skillfully to advance the common good.”

How in the world does Ann Coulter advance the university's mission and Bishop Tutu does not?

(photo of Tutu: Geoconger Files)

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Three big questions

1. Why did Israel bomb Syria? According to Jonathan Cook, in his September 27th article, it could be an opening shot for a war on Iran. “…[T]he political significance of the justifications for the Israeli air strike is that both neatly tie together various strands of an argument needed by the neocons and Israel in making their case for an attack on Iran before Bush leaves office in early 2009. Each scenario suggests a Shia ‘axis of evil’, coordinated by Iran, that is actively plotting Israel's destruction. And each story offers the pretext for an attack on Syria as a prelude to a pre-emptive strike against Tehran -- launched either by Washington or Tel Aviv -- to save Israel.”

2. Why did Saddam Hussein want to take WMD papers with him into exile? In his September 28th post, Bush-Aznar Transcript: The War Crime of the Century, Juan Cole states, “…[T]he documents presumably showed that the Reagan and Bush senior administrations had secretly authorized his chemical and biological weapons programs. With these documents in his possession, it was unlikely that Bush would come after him, since he could ruin the reputation of the Bush family if he did. The destruction of these documents was presumably Bush's goal when he had Rumsfeld order US military personnel not to interfere with the looting and burning of government offices after the fall of Saddam. The looting, which set off the guerrilla war, also functioned as a vast shredding party, destroying incriminating evidence about the complicity of the Bushes and Rumsfeld in Iraq's war crimes.”

3. What is standing in the way of a U.S. attack on Iran? On September 28th, Glenn Greenwald posted The U.S. military's role in preventing the bombing of Iran: “What is most striking about all of this is that even after all of this time, even after it has become more or less conventional wisdom that the Iraq War is an unparalleled disaster, no real political checks on their extremism exist. The Cheney-led neoconservatives are still the most powerful force, by far, in the American government….

“So that is the environment in which the U.S. military seems to be taking a defiant stand against the neoconservative radicals in our government -- one in which all other political checks are far too broken and weak, if not supportive, to do anything to stop them in their ongoing Middle East war march. Steve Clemons' recent, much-discussed article in Salon emphasized the role military commanders have played in insisting that a military strike against Iran would be disastrous. And Clemons cited this post from Time's Joe Klein which reported that the Joint Chiefs, when asked last December by Bush about air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, were ‘unanimously opposed to taking that course of action,’ and they warned that ‘the Iranian response in Iraq and, quite possibly, in terrorist attacks on the U.S. could be devastating.’

“I'm far from convinced that, as Clemons and Klein both suggest, these warnings have persuaded President Bush that he cannot pursue a military confrontation with Iran. That is not how Bush works. When he is convinced that there is a moralistic imperative to his actions, he will pursue it even in the face of military opposition….

“Bush asked the Chiefs [Joint Chiefs] about the wisdom of a troop ‘surge’ in Iraq. They were unanimously opposed.

“…[F]or Bush, remaining in Iraq is the Right Thing, so Bush ignored the military's advice and replaced the top Generals with David Petraeus, who told him what he wanted to hear. Bush continues to believe that Iran is part of the "Axis of Evil" and that his legacy depends upon destroying that regime, and particularly stopping them from acquiring nuclear weapons, no matter what the cost. It is hard to envision Bush accepting the notion that he cannot bomb Iran. The central lesson of this presidency has been that Bush does not accept limits of any kind on his decision-making powers -- whether such limits are grounded in the law or in the basic constraints of reality.”

(question mark: University of Northern Iowa library)

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

U.S. media in a tizzy about Ahmadinejad

Yesterday morning in The New York Times, I read U.S. Focus on Ahmadinejad Puzzles Iranians. When I went online in the evening, I was stunned by the number of articles and posts about the Iranian president’s appearance in the US and speech at Columbia University.

The mainstream media: The Washington Post article, Ahmadinejad Met with Protests, Criticism at Columbia University, where Ahmadinejad defended his human rights record in the face of withering questions and a jeering audience. “Pressed about the Holocaust, he said at one point, ‘I'm not saying that it didn't happen at all.’ Rather, he said, he is asking ‘what does it have to do with the Palestinian people?’”


The New York Times article, Facing Scorn, President of Iran is Defiant to His Critics, reported Ahmadinejad’s comment, “'If you have created the fifth generation of atomic bombs and are testing them already, who are you to question other people who just want nuclear power....?'"


Both posts are well worth reading.

While the mainstream media is focusing on Ahmadinejad, where was the news about the climate change session going on now at the U.N? According to Sameer Lalwani, reporting from the UN on behalf of The Washington Note (TWN)* Ahmadinejad Steals The Show.

Lalwani laments, “This underscores the difficulties the climate change debate has encountered time and again -- how do we raise the spectre of global climate change to the level of imminence, and in turn, raise the political salience? ...[E]ven those who are willing to acknowledge the climate threat are not convinced it trumps more imminent threats like blowback from the Iraq war, the next terrorist attack on US soil, or possible Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons. Hence the reason Ahmadinejad stole Ban Ki Moon's news cycle.

“When the job of the President and this Congress is increasingly driven by crises rather than long-term planning to meet emerging challenges -- especially the greatest collective action problem perhaps the world has ever known -- it would take someone fiercely determined like former Vice President Al Gore (who thundered away at the UN today in his call to arms against climate change) to manage crises without allowing the total usurpation of a long-term agenda.”

Back to the puzzled Iranians. According to The New York Times article, “Political analysts here say they are surprised at the degree to which the West focuses on their president, saying that it reflects a general misunderstanding of their system.

“Unlike in the United States, in Iran the president is not the head of state nor the commander in chief. That status is held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, whose role combines civil and religious authority. At the moment, this president’s power comes from two sources, they say: the unqualified support of the supreme leader, and the international condemnation he manages to generate when he speaks up….

“In demonizing Mr. Ahmadinejad, the West has served him well, elevating his status at home and in the region at a time when he is increasingly isolated politically because of his go-it-alone style and ineffective economic policies, according to Iranian politicians, officials and political experts.”

*[update: two TWN posts about Iran added last night]

(caricature of Ahmadinejad – Cox and Forkum)

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Freedom's Watch sells the connection between 9/11 and the war in Iraq

On August 22nd, Freedom's Watch was launched. Its message: “Victory is America’s Only Choice.”

As reported in the September 12th Washington Post article, 9/11 Linked to Iraq, in Politics if Not in Fact, Freedom’s Watch is airing four spots in 60 congressional districts in 20 states. “The commercials urge Congress to stick with the president's strategy in Iraq. The most poignant of them stars a soldier identified as John Kriesel, who was wounded on Dec. 2, 2006, and is shown walking with two artificial legs….’They attacked us,’ he says as the screen turns to an image of the second hijacked airplane heading toward the smoking World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001. ‘And they will again. They won't stop in Iraq.’” You can watch the commercial here.

Ari Fleischer, former Bush White house press secretary and one of the group’s founders, has stated that it doesn’t matter that the Iraqis didn’t attack us on 9/11 because some of the same sorts of people who did are now fighting U.S. forces in Iraq.

According to Juan Cole, who posted Who is the US Fighting in Iraq? on August 27, “Self-identified al-Qaeda are only 1,800 of the 24,000 in captivity, about 7 percent. (Of course, most of these fighters are not really al-Qaeda in the sense of pledging fealty to Usama Bin Laden or being part of his organization; they are using "al-Qaeda" to mean ’bogeyman’ i.e., 'be afraid of me'.)”

As early as September of 2005, we’ve known that only 4 to 10 percent of the insurgents are foreigners, as reported in the Christian Science Monitor, The "Myth" of Iraq's Foreign Fighters.


The right-wing think tank, the Cato Institute, published a report on January 31st of this year, The Myth of an al-Qaeda Takeover of Iraq: “Even the U.S. government concedes that there are fewer than 2,000 al Qaeda fighters in Iraq, and the Iraq Study Group put the figure at only 1,300.

“Indeed, foreign fighters make up a relatively small component of the Sunni insurgency against the U.S. and British occupation forces. It strains credulity to imagine 1,300 fighters (and foreigners at that) dominating a country of 26 million people….

At best, al Qaeda could hope for a tenuous presence in predominantly Sunni areas of the country while being incessantly stalked and harassed by government forces -- and probably hostile Iraqi Sunnis as well. That doesn't exactly sound like a reliable base of operations for attacks on America.” [bolding mine]

According to the Washington Post article, 9/11 Linked to Iraq, in Politics if Not in Fact, the Freedom's Watch ad featuring John Kriesel is “…part of a new $15 million media blitz launched by an advocacy group allied with the White House, [and] may be the most overt attempt during the current debate in Congress over the war to link the attacks with Iraq."

(photo from Media Matters)

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Who's right about Gen. Petraeus - Juan Cole or Glenn Greenwald?

Today’s post from Juan Cole, Can Gen. Petraeus and Ryan Crocker Save the Next Democratic President?: Excerpt: “I'm a severe skeptic on the likelihood of anything that looks like success in Iraq. But I don't think career public servants such as Ryan Crocker and David Petraeus are acting as partisan Republicans in their Iraq efforts. I think they both are sincere, experienced men attempting to retrieve what they can for America from Bush's catastrophe. [bolding mine]. They may as well try, since the Democrats can't over-rule Bush and get the troops out, anyway. If the troops are there, they may as well at least be deployed intelligently, which is what Gen. Petraeus is doing. I wish them well in their Herculean labors. Because if they fail, I have a sinking feeling that we are all going down with them, including the next Democratic president. And their success is a long shot."

Today’s post from Glenn Greenwald, Brit Hume and the Bush administration take propaganda to a new level - Gen. Petraeus gives an exclusive "interview" that was scripted by the U.S. military and designed to bolster every claim of the Bush administration. Excerpt: “Just as George Bush and Dick Cheney have done on politically important occasions, Gen. David Petraeus (along with Ambassador Ryan Crocker) last night selected Fox News' Brit Hume as the ‘journalist’ rewarded with an exclusive ‘interview.’ Whereas Hume, in the past, at least has pretended to play the role of journalist when interviewing high Bush officials -- doing things like asking (extremely respectful) questions about sensitive areas (with no follow up) -- he dispensed entirely with the pretense here. This ‘interview’ took government propaganda to a whole new level, and really has to be seen to be believed (the full video is here).

“The whole production was such transparent propaganda that one doubts that Pravda would have been shameless enough to present it. Even the title of the program was creepy. Fox did not even bother to call it an ‘interview,’ but rather hailed it as a ‘Briefing for America.’”

Sunday, September 09, 2007

The "Anbar Model"

Over Labor Day weekend, Bush paid a “…[H]ighly symbolic visit to the vast, sparsely populated and Sunni-dominated Anbar province in western Iraq….He held out the tantalizing promise that some U.S. troops may soon be headed home if the military successes in Anbar can be echoed in violence-racked Baghdad,” as reported in The Globe and Mail on September 4 in Bush visits Iraq to buttress claims of progress.


The mainstream media is repeating this story of success in Anbar, notably in The New York Times, with an op-ed by Roger Cohen on September 6, The Least Bad Choice, “Exit timing and U.S. election maneuvering stand at the center of this month’s Iraq drama… One [report], from the Government Accountability Office, has already given the Bush-Petraeus surge a failing grade: a feckless Iraqi government, unshared oil money, untamed militias and undiminished violence.

Not fair, Petraeus and Bush will argue, using the new catchphrase ‘bottom-up progress’ to highlight headway in Sunni-dominated provinces like Anbar through cash-cemented alliances with local sheiks who have been persuaded to turn again to Al Qaeda.” [bolding mine]

On September 9, The New York Times published a lengthy article, Troop Buildup, Yielding Slight Gains, Fails to Meet U.S. Goals. “ In recent weeks, President Bush and his commanders have shifted their emphasis to new alliances with tribal leaders that have improved security in Diyala Province, the Sunni Triangle and other Sunni areas, most notably Anbar Province.” [bolding mine]

Today the Seattle Times reported more objectively in Buildup fails to mend political divisions in Iraq: ‘With the national government in deadlock, U.S. officials have begun encouraging reconciliation at the local level. The model is Anbar, the vast Sunni province where tribal sheiks turned against al-Qaida in Iraq and sought cooperation with the Americans….Still, Anbar is not secure, accounting for 18 percent of the U.S. deaths in Iraq so far this year — making it the second deadliest province after Baghdad. Four Marines were killed in Anbar on Thursday…."

Nonetheless, U.S. officials now speak of exporting the "Anbar model" elsewhere, including the Shiite heartland of the south, where militias hold sway." [bolding mine]

“Not so fast,” says Juan Cole of Informed Comment in his September 4th post, On How al-Anbar isnt' that Safe and on How it's "Calm" is Artificially Produced. Cole asks, “Is al-Anbar Province really paradise, as Bush suggested?” He answers this question with a series of answers, including: ”Al-Anbar residents killed 20 US troops in July. The total US fatalities in July were 79 according to icasualties.org, and some of those were presumably from accidents, etc. So al-Anbar, despite being reduced to the stone age, managed to kill a fourth or more of all US troops killed in combat in July. Al-Anbar is roughly 1/24 of Iraq by population. So it killed six times more US troops than we would have expected based on its proportion of the Iraqi population. …

”In mid-July, There were about 100 violent attacks in a single week in al-Anbar. That's a bright spot. That's progress. Since the year before, there were 400 violent attacks in that same period.Well, yes, that's a relative improvement. But a hundred violent attacks in a week? That's being touted as good news to be ecstatic over? There were probably on the order of 1100 attacks that week in all of Iraq. So al-Anbar generated nearly one-tenth of all attacks. But it is only 1/24 of Iraq by population, so it is more than twice as dangerous with regard to the number of attacks than you would expect from its small population.”

I hope you’ll take time to read Cole’s entire post before General Petraeus gives us his progress report this Tuesday.

(map of Iraq with Anbar Province in yellow: Gulf2000Columbia.edu - double-click on the map to enlarge)

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Keep your eye on Petraeus - Part Four

This morning, the photo accompanying The New York Times article about General Petraeus’s appearance in Washington, D.C. for the upcoming Congressional hearing about progress in Iraq was rather amazing. The caption: “ANOTHER WAR, 40 YEARS AGO: Gen. William C. Westmoreland briefed Congress in 1967 on what he described as gains in Vietnam. President Bush hopes a general will bolster his case for Iraq.”

The Vietnam War ended on April 30, 1975. Will we be in Iraq for another 8 years? MoveOn has cleverly captured President Bush’s comments about “progress” in Iraq over the past several years:



So now we have General Petraeus as President Bush’s political spear-carrier as he appears before Congress on September 11th to talk about progress in Iraq.

I posted about General Petraeus on January 26, as he headed to Iraq shortly after being confirmed by the Senate as the new U.S. Commander in Iraq. I referred to the counterinsurgency manual that Petraeus authored in which he had stated that 120,000 troops would be needed to secure Baghdad, but he reasoned that the roughly 32,000 American troops that would be deployed in the capital under the plan would be enough.

On March 20, I posted Keep your eyes on Petraeus - Part Two linking to my favorite Middle Eastern expert, Juan Cole who posted this comment on March 19 at Informed Comment: “General Petraeus, in the meantime, is signalling that his own patience is not infinite, and that if he can't see a genuine improvement in the security situation by June [bolding mine], he would have an obligation to his own troops to say so. It is so refreshing to hear that kind of language from the Pentagon after all those years of Donald Rumsfeld's despicable disregard for the welfare of the troops he was supposed to be leading….”

Part Three on Petraeus was posted on April 16, in which I linked to Robert Fisk’s April 11 article in the UK Independent, Divide and Rule - American's Plan for Baghdad, in which Fisk describes the latest security plan concocted by General Petraeus to seal off vast areas of Baghdad.

Update: According to todays' New York Times article, Troop Buildup,Yielding Slight Gains, Fails to Meet U.S. Goals, “The hulking blast walls that the Americans have set up around many neighborhoods have only intensified the city’s [Baghdad] sense of balkanization.”

When I listen to General Petraeus on September 11, what do I need to remember? On July 19, Glenn Greenwald at Salon.com posted How much credence should Gen. Petraeus' reports be given - The source being depicted as the Objective Oracle on Iraq has a long history of extreme optimism about the progress we were making in the war. If you don’t read anything else before September 11, read this. Greenwald has exhaustively listed the countless times in the past that General Petraeus has sunnily reported on progress in Iraq.

(photo: The New York Times, Agence France-Presse — Getty Images)

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Rubin: How to Stop War with Iran

Last night I read Barnett Rubin’s Theses on Policy Toward Iran at Informed Comment Global Affairs and think it’s one of the best articles I’ve read about the likelihood of an attack on Iran and what we can do about it.

This morning Juan Cole provides a summary: “Barnett Rubin gives us a thoughtful call to arms on how to prevent war with Iran at the Global Affairs blog. After analyzing the way the Bushies would probably go to war if they can, Rubin writes:

' The immediate goal for Democratic presidential candidates and the Democrats (and sensible Republicans) in Congress should be to use the power of the legislative branch to prevent the administration from launching a war. I can think of two possible ways to do this: [bolding mine]

* Pass an Act of Congress stating that the 2001 AUMF does not authorize a preemptive strike against Iran (or a strike in response to an alleged provocation – recall Tonkin Gulf). In this case, Congress would claim that war with Iran requires new authorization.

* Cut off funding for any war with Iran not specifically authorized by Congress in accordance with the law after September 30, when spending starts out of next year’s budget. Presumably they won’t be able to start the war by then and rely on the “support the troops” argument. In coordination with this immediate response, responsible leaders in both parties should articulate an alternative policy toward Iran starting with the same principle as the Helsinki Accords of 1975 – no regime change. '

"Read the whole thing"

Then go to Congress.org to find contact information for your Congressional representatives and urge them to take action per Rubin’s suggestions.

(photo of Barnett Rubin – voanews.com)

Monday, September 03, 2007

Keeping up on what is happening in the Middle East: Two "must check" blogs

I’m off for two days to help care for my youngest grandchildren, Rody and Sophia, seven months old today.

In my efforts to stay on top of what is happening in Iraq and what the Bush Administration appears to be planning regarding Iran, these two blogs have become essential daily reading:

1. Juan Cole’s Informed Comment. For instance, today he links to Nermeen Mufti explains why Iraqis are pessimistic on both the security and political front.

2. Informed Comment Global Affairs, a group blog launched by Juan Cole a few months ago. Here’s an excerpt from the September 2nd post by contributor Barnett Rubin, Administration's Iran... which opens with, “The Sunday Times of London reports from Washington a story I have not seen in any U.S. media: that "the Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive air strikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days.’ The source of this report was Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center.

”Speaking at a meeting sponsored by the journal National Interest, edited by Irving Kristol, father of Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol Debate stated:

"US military planners were not preparing for ‘pinprick strikes’ against Iran’s nuclear facilities. ‘They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military,’ he said.

“As in the run-up to the war in Iraq, President Bush is maintaining the fiction that he is ‘committed for now to the diplomatic route,’ but many signs indicate that the decision to attack has been taken as irrevocably as the decision to attack Iraq in the fall of 2002.”

(photo of grandson Rody at about 5 months and me)

Sunday, September 02, 2007

Preparing for the report on the surge to be presented to Congress on September 11

In anticipation of the September 11th report to Congress by General David H. Petraeus and the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan C. Crocker, the White House and the military are getting ready to make what clearly appears to be a big pitch for “staying the course.”

What are the “big guys” doing in order to sway Congress?

The White House is busy preparing Petraeus's report and George Bush is fighting back, accusing the war’s opponents of politicizing the debate over what to do next.

The military:
A. The Pentagon is challenging the GAO report on Iraq, requesting that some of the assessment’s failing grades on key political and security benchmarks that have been imposed on the Iraqi government as a condition of continued US military support be changed before the final report is made public.
B. General Petraeus: To the extent the White House will let him prepare his own report, Petraeus is pulling together an optimistic report on the success of the surge, according to Glenn Greenwald, who blogs for Salon.com: “When Gen. Petraeus comes in September to laud the Great Progress of the Surge, this will be nothing new. Gen. Petraeus has been telling Americans for years -- since at least 2004 -- that we have been making Great Progress in Iraq…. Gen. Petraeus' explanations as to why his prior, highly optimistic reports did not materialize -- i.e., because of subsequent acts of violence such as the February, 2006 Samara bombing which could not be anticipated -- do not withstand scrutiny. Many of Petraeus' most publicized and influential statements of Great Progress concerned the supposedly vast improvements in Iraqi troop readiness. Those claims -- for whatever reasons -- simply turned out to be false, and subsequent acts of violence do not explain why the Iraqi troops whose readiness he was lauding turned out to be so unreliable.

“Whatever else is true, as we decide (a) what the true state of affairs is in Iraq and (b) what we will do about Iraq, we must take into account the past conduct and claims of various individuals who want to exert influence over those perceptions now. And we should not be relying -- certainly not primarily -- on those who either (a) have been swooning for years about how great things are in Iraq and/or (b) who have a significant personal investment in having the invasion, and especially the Surge, be perceived as a success….

“The point here is that nothing warrants holding up Gen. Petraeus as the Ultimate Objective and Infallible Authority on the state of affairs in Iraq, and there is plenty that counsels against doing so."

Kevin Drum, who blogs for The Washington Monthly has posted General Petraeus's PR Blitzkrieg, well worth reading in its entirety. A snippet: "Petraeus is a four-star general, by all accounts a brilliant man, and a professional student of counterinsurgency. He's keenly aware of the value of both the media and public opinion, and he did what any counterinsurgency expert would have counseled in his circumstances: he unleashed a hearts-and-minds campaign aimed at opinion makers and politicians. For months the military transports to Baghdad have been stuffed with analysts and congress members, and every one of them has gotten a full court press of carefully planned and scripted presentations, tightly controlled visits to favored units, and assorted dollops of 'classified' information designed to flatter his guests and substantiate his rosy assessments without the inconvenience of having to defend them in public."

So how do we get informed? Start with Juan Cole’s Arguments over Night of the Living Dead in Iraq. Excerpt: “I personally find the controversy about Iraq in Washington to be bizarre. Are they really arguing about whether the situation is improving? I mean, you have the Night of the Living Dead over there. People lack potable water, cholera has broken out even in the good areas, a third of people are hungry, a doubling of the internally displaced to at least 1.1 million, and a million pilgrims dispersed just this week by militia infighting in a supposedly safe all-Shiite area. The government has all but collapsed, with even the formerly cooperative sections of the Sunni Arab political class withdrawing in a snit (much less more Sunni Arabs being brought in from the cold). The parliament hasn't actually passed any legislation to speak of and often cannot get a quorum. Corruption is endemic. The weapons we give the Iraqi army are often sold off to the insurgency. Some of our development aid goes to them, too. 'The average number of Iraqis killed in 2007 per day exceeds those killed in 2006. Independent counts by news organizations do not agree with Pentagon estimates about drops in civilian deaths over-all.'

"Nation-wide attacks in June reached a daily all-time high of 177.5. True, violence in Baghdad has been wrestled back down to the levels of summer, 2006 (hint: it wasn't paradise), but violence levels are up in the rest of the country. If you compare each month in 2006 with each month in 2007 with regard to US military deaths, the 2007 picture is dreadful. I saw on CNN this smarmy Bush administration official come and and say that US troop deaths had fallen because of the surge, which is why we should support it. Just read the following chart bottom to top and compare 2006 month by month to 2007. US troop deaths haven't fallen. They are way up. Besides, they would be zero if the US were not occupying Iraq militarily, so if we should support a policy that leads to fewer troop deaths, that is the better policy. Here are the US troop death via Icasualties.org:
8-2007 77 : 8-2006 65
7-2007 79 : 7-2006 43
6-2007 101: 6-2006 61
5-2007 126: 5-2006 69
4-2007 104: 4-2006 76
3-2007 81: 3-2006 31
2-2007 81: 2-2006 55
1-2007 83: 1-2006 62"

Then go to TalkingPointsMemo.com's A masterful con job in which Steve Benen posts, “A couple of days ago, the NYT reported that the White House 'is growing more confident that it can beat back efforts by Congressional Democrats to shift course in Iraq.' It's not because conditions in Iraq have improved, and it's not because the president's policy is producing results, but because the administration has 'a sense the dynamic has changed. '

“It's all about some amorphous 'sense' that's entirely independent of reality. Consider what we've learned this week. The GAO prepared a 'strikingly negative' assessment of conditions on the ground, with no political progress (the intended point of the 'surge') and little evidence of reduced violence. Of the 18 Iraqi benchmarks, Bush's policy has come up short on 15. An independent federal commission believes Iraq's 26,000-member national police force is beyond repair and might need to be disbanded altogether. A working draft of a secret document prepared by the U.S. embassy in Baghdad shows that the Maliki government is rotten to the core. Iraqi civilian deaths are getting worse, not better. The latest data shows U.S. troop fatalities worse every month this year compared to the same months last year. A smidgeon of evidence pointing to at least marginal political progress late last week turned out to be smoke and mirrors."

Keep reading everything you can between now and September 11. While the hearing is going on and presumably aired on C-Span, have your Congressional representative’s phone number and your homework handy.

(photo the a surge of detainees in Iraq: PatDollard.com, and as reported in The New York Times on August 25, 2007, Detainees soar with surge)